Buổi 112: Reading – Matching features: vì sao gia đình nhỏ dần?

Why are families getting smaller?

(Bài đọc tự viết; các nhà nghiên cứu là giả định.)

A In many parts of the world, the average number of children per family has fallen considerably over the past few generations. Grandparents who grew up with six or seven siblings may now have grandchildren with one or none. Researchers broadly agree that this change has happened, but they disagree about why, and about whether it is likely to continue.

B The economist Lucia Fernandes emphasises cost. In her view, the decline in family size is closely linked to the rising expense of raising children, especially in cities. Housing, education and childcare all take a growing share of household income, and parents increasingly feel that they should invest heavily in each child. Fernandes argues that, faced with these costs, many couples decide to have fewer children so that they can give each one more.

C The sociologist Kwame Mensah accepts that cost matters but argues that it cannot be the whole explanation, since family size has also fallen among wealthier households that could afford more children. For Mensah, the more important factor is a change in social norms. Where large families were once expected, smaller ones are now regarded as normal, and in some places even as a sign of responsibility. He also points to the expansion of women’s education and employment, which has given many women wider choices about when, and whether, to have children.

D The demographer Hana Sato focuses on timing. She notes that people in many countries are postponing marriage and parenthood, often until their thirties, as they complete longer periods of education and try to establish their careers. Because they start later, they tend to have fewer children overall, even if they had originally intended to have more. Sato is careful to point out that this does not necessarily mean people want smaller families; surveys in some places suggest that many would like more children than they actually have.

E Mensah agrees with Sato that delayed parenthood plays a part, but he challenges her suggestion that most people would prefer larger families. In his view, stated preferences in surveys may reflect what people think they ought to say rather than what they would actually choose. Sato, for her part, acknowledges this risk but maintains that the gap between intended and actual family size is too consistent to dismiss.

F A fourth perspective comes from the urban planner David Okonkwo, who links family size to housing design. Apartments in many growing cities, he argues, are built for one or two people, with little space for children or for older relatives. Okonkwo goes further than Fernandes, suggesting that housing affects not only the cost of having children but also the kind of family life that seems possible. He believes that planners could make a difference by building homes suitable for larger or multigenerational households.

G Will families continue to shrink? Fernandes expects the trend to continue as long as costs keep rising, while Sato suggests that family size may stabilise if policies make it easier to combine work and parenthood. Mensah is the most cautious, arguing that social norms change slowly and are difficult for governments to influence. Okonkwo, by contrast, is relatively optimistic, at least about the potential of better housing to widen people’s choices.